A selection of publications produced by the UK Drought and Water Scarcity programme (by project).

Historic droughts

Bloomfield, J.P.Marchant, B.P.; Bricker, S.H.; Morgan, R.B.: 2015. Regional analysis of groundwater droughts using hydrograph classification. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19 (10). 4327–4344. 10.5194/hess-19-4327-2015

Jackson, C.J.; Wang, L.; Pachoka, M.; Mackay, J.D.; Bloomfield, J.P.; 2016. Reconstruction of multi-decadal groundwater level time series. Hydrological Processes. 10.1002/hyp.10850 

Lange, B.Holman, I.Bloomfield, J.P.: 2017. A framework for a joint hydro-meteorological-social analysis of drought. Science of the Total Environment, 758, 297-306, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.145.

Parry, S.; Wilby, R.L.; Prudhomme, C.; Wood, P.J.: 2016.  A systematic assessment of drought termination in the United Kingdom. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20 (10). 4265-4281. 10.5194/hess-20-4265-2016.

Rey, D.L.; Holman, I.,P.; Daccache, A.; Morris, J.; Weatherhead, K.; Knox, J.: 2016. Modelling and mapping the economic value of supplemental irrigation in a humid climate. Agricultural Water Management, 173, 13–22.

Rey, D.Holman, I.Knox, J.: 2017. Developing drought resilience in irrigated agriculture in the face of increasing water scarcity. Regional Environmental Change. 10.1007/s10113-017-1116-6.

Stahl, K.; Kohn, I.; Blauhut, V.; Urquijo, J.; De Stefano, L.; Acacio, V.; Dias, S.; Stagge, J.H.;Tallaksen, L.M.; Kampragou, E.; Van Loon, A.F.; Barker, L.J.; Melsen, L.A.; Bifulco, C.; Musolino, D.;de Carli, A.; Massarutto, A.; Assimacopoulos, D.; Van Lanen, H.A.J.: 2016. Impacts of European drought events: insights from an international database of text-based reports. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 16 (3). 801–819. 10.5194/nhess-16-801-2016

Van Lanen, H.A.J.; Laaha, G.; Kingston, D.G.; Gauster, T.; Ionita, M.; Vidal, J.; Vlnas, R.; Tallaksen, L.M.; Stahl, K.; Hannaford, J.; Delus, C.; Fendekova, M.; Mediero, L.; Prudhomme, C.; Rets, E.; Romanowicz, R.J.; Sebastien, G.; Wong, W.K.; Adler, M.; Blauhut, V.; Caillouet, L.; Chelcea, S.; Frolova, N.; Gudmundsson, L.; Hanel, M.; Haslinger, K.; Kireeva, M.; Osuch, M.; Sauquet, E.; Stagge, J.H.; Van Loon, A.F.: 2016. Hydrology needed to manage droughts: the 2015 European case. Hydrological Processes. 10.1002/hyp.10838

Van Loon, A.F.; Gleeson, T.; Clark, J.; van Dijk, A.I.J.M.; Stahl, K.; Hannaford, J.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Teuling, A.J.; Tallaksen, L.M.; Uijlenhoet, R.; Hannah, D.M.; Sheffield, J.; Svoboda, M.; Verbeiren, B.; Wagener, T.; Rangecroft, S.; Wanders, N.; van Lanen, H.A.J.: 2016 Drought in the Anthropocene. Nature Geoscience, 9 (2). 89–91. 10.1038/ngeo2646

Wilby, R.L.; Prudhomme, C.; Parry, S.; Muchan, K.G.L.: 2015. Persistence of hydrometeorological droughts in the United Kingdom: a regional analysis of multi-season rainfall and river flow anomalies. Journal of Extreme Events, 2 (2), 1550006. 10.1142/S2345737615500062

Drought risk and you (DRY)

Climate Outreach: 2015. Communicating drought risk in a changing climate.


Bennett, G.L., Roering, J.J., Mackey, B.H., Handwerger, A.L., Schmidt, D.A. and Guillod, B.P. (2016) Historic drought puts the brakes on earthflows in Northern California. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(11): 5725-5731.  DOI: 10.1002/2016GL068378

Borgomeo, E., M. Mortazavi-Naeini, J. W. Hall, M. J. O’Sullivan, and T. Watson (2016) Trading-off tolerable risk with climate change adaptation costs in water supply systems, Water Resources Research, 52, DOI:10.1002/ 2015WR018164

Bussi, G., Janes, V., Whitehead, P.G., Dadson, S.J. and Holman, I.P. (2017) Dynamic response of land use and river nutrient concentration to long-term climatic changesScience of the Total Environment, 590–591, Pages 818–831.  DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.069

Bussi, G., Paul G. Whitehead, Michael J. Bowes, Daniel S. Read, Christel Prudhomme, Simon J. Dadson  (2016)  Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames Science of The Total Environment  DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.02.109

Bussi G, Dadson S, Prudhomme C., Whitehead P. (2016). Modelling the future impacts of climate and land-use change on suspended sediment transport in the River Thames (UK). Journal of Hydrology, pp. 357-372 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.09.010

Bussi, G., Dadson, S.J., Bowes, M.J. and Whitehead, P.G. (2016) Seasonal and interannual changes in sediment transport identified through sediment rating curves. Journal of Hydrological Engineering, in press

Byers, E., Qadrdan, M., Hall, J., Amezaga, J., Chaudry, M., Kilsby, C., Martino, T. and Alderson, D. (2016) Water use and water availability constraints to decarbonised electricity systems. EGU General Assembly 2016, held 17-22 April, 2016 in Vienna Austria.

Cook, C. (2016) Regulating the Risks of Domestic Greywater Reuse: A Comparison of England and California. Built Environment, Volume 42, Number 2, July 2016, pp. 230-242(13). DOI: 10.2148/benv.42.2.230

Cook, C. (2016) Drought planning as a proxy for water security in England. Current Opinion in Environmental SustainabilityVolume 21, August 2016, Pages 65–69. DOI:

Crossman J, Whitehead P. (2014). Macronutrient cycles: themed issue. Environmental Science: Processes & Impacts, 16 (7), pp. 1548. DOI: 10.1039/C4EM90017K

Dadson, S., Hall, J., Garrick, D., Sadoff, C., Grey, D. and Whittington, D. (2016) Water security, risk and economic growth: lessons from a dynamical systems model. EGU General Assembly 2016, held 17-22 April, 2016 in Vienna Austria.

Freire-González, J., C Decker and J. W. Hall (2016) ‘The Economic Impacts of Droughts: A Framework for Analysis’ (2017) 132 Ecological Economics 196  DOI 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.11.005

Freire-González, J., C. Decker  and J.W. Hall (2017). ‘Linear programming input-output method to determine optimal restrictions for water scarcity management’ Water Research (under review)

Freire-González, J., C. Decker  . and J.W. Hall (2017). ‘A scenario-based framework for assessing the economic impacts of potential droughts’. Water Resources and Economics (under review)

Guillod, B. P., Jones, R. G., Dadson, S. J., Coxon, G., Bussi, G., Freer, J., Kay, A. L., Massey, N. R., Sparrow, S. N., Wallom, D. C. H., Allen, M. R., and Hall, J. W.: A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2017-246, in review, 2017

Guillod, B., Massey, N., Otto, F., Allen, M., Jones, R. and Hall, J. (2016) Synthetic drought event sets: thousands of meteorological drought events for risk-based management under present and future conditions. EGU General Assembly 2016, held 17-22 April, 2016 in Vienna Austria.

Guillod B, Bowery A, Haustein K, Jones R, Massey N, Mitchell D, Allen M. (2016). weather@home 2: validation of an improved global-regional climate modelling system. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, pp. 1-37. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-2016-239

Guillod, B., Andy Bowery, Karsten Haustein, Richard G. Jones, Neil R. Massey, Daniel M. Mitchell, Friederike E. L. Otto, Sarah N. Sparrow, Peter Uhe, David C. H. Wallom, Simon Wilson, and Myles R. Allen 2016 ‘Weather@home: validation of an improved global-regional climate modelling system’.  Geoscientific Model Development  doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-239

Hall, J.W., Grey, D., Garrick, D., Fung, F., Brown, C., Dadson, S.J. and Sadoff, C.W. (2014) Coping with the curse of freshwater variability. Science, 346(6208): 429-430. DOI: 10.1126/science.1257890

Kay A.L., Bell V.A., Guillod B.P., Jones R.J., Rudd A.C. (2018). National-scale analysis of low flow frequency: historical trends and potential future changes. Climatic Change. 147(585–599).

Kingsborough, A., Katie Jenkins, Jim W. Hall (2017) Development and appraisal of long-term adaptation pathways for managing heat-risk in LondonClimate Risk Management, Available online 19 January 2017

Laize, C (2016) Drought impacts on river ecology, 4th BHS International Conference, Cranfield, 30 Aug-1 Sept 2016

Landstrom, C., Sarmiento, E. Whatmore, S (submitted) Biopolitics, discipline, and hydro-citizenship: Drought management and water governance in England.  Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers

Lange, B., C Cook, 2015, “Mapping a Developing Governance Space: Managing Drought in the UK”  Current Legal Problems, 2015 DOI: 10.1093/clp/cuv014

Lange, B., Holman, I., Bloomfield, J.P.: 2016. “A framework for a joint hydro-meteorological-social analysis of drought.” Science of the Total Environment  DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.145.

Lange, B. 2017 ‘How to think about ‘nature-society’ relationships in environmental law ‘in action’?, in Andreas Philippopoulos-Mihalopoulos and Victoria Brooks (eds.)  Handbook of Research Methods in Environmental Law, Edward Elgar.

Lange, B. (submitted) ‘Choosing drought management options: constituting a governance space’, article (ca. 9000 words), Water International.

Massey, N., Allen, M. and Hall, J. (2016) Large Ensembles of Regional Climate Projections. EGU General Assembly 2016, held 17-22 April, 2016 in Vienna Austria.

Piniewski, M., C. Prudhomme, M.C. Acreman, L. Tylec, P. Oglęcki, T. Okruszko 2016  Responses of fish and invertebrates to floods and droughts in Europe. Accepted for publication in Ecohydrology.  DOI: 10.1002/eco.1793

Rey D. (2016) Developing drought resilience in irrigated agriculture in the face of increasing water scarcity. Adaptation Futures 2016 Conference

Rey, D.;I.P. Holman, A. Daccacheb, J. Morris, E.K. Weatherhead, J.W. Knoxa (2016) Modelling and mapping the economic value of supplemental irrigation in a humid climate Agricultural Water Management 173 (2016) 13–22 Doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2016.04.017

Rey D., Holman I. and Knox J. (2017) Developing drought resilience in irrigated agriculture in the face of increasing water scarcity. Regional Environmental Change, DOI 10.1007/s10113-017-1116-6

Richard Williams, Colin Neal, Helen Jarvie, Andrew Johnson, Paul Whitehead, Mike Bowes, and Alan Jenkins 2015 Water Quality, in Progress in Modern Hydrology: Past, Present and Future, First Edition. Edited by John C. Rodda and Mark Robinson. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. DOI: 10.1002/9781119074304.ch8

Rio M., Rey D., Prudhomme C., Holman I. Evaluation  of  changing  water  abstraction  reliability  for  supplemental  irrigation  under  climate  change. Submitted to Journal of Hydrology

Rudd, A.C., Kay, A.L. & Bell, V.A. (2019). National-scale analysis of future river flow and soil moisture droughts: potential changes in drought characteristics. Climatic Change.

Rudd, A.C., Bell, V.A. and Kay, A.L. (2017) National-scale analysis of simulated hydrological droughts (1891-2015). Journal of Hydrology. Vol 550, P368-385, DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.05.018

Safavi, H.R., Raghibi, V., Mazdiyasni, O. and Mortazavi-Naeini, M. (2017) A new hybrid drought-monitoring framework based on nonparametric standardized indicatorsHydrology Research, 48(1).  DOI: 10.2166/nh.2017.266

Van Loon Anne F., Kerstin Stahl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Julian Clark, Sally Rangecroft, Niko Wanders, Tom Gleeson, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Lena M. Tallaksen, Jamie Hannaford, Remko Uijlenhoet, Adriaan J. Teuling, David M. Hannah, Justin Sheffield, Mark Svoboda, Boud Verbeiren, Thorsten Wagener, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen, (2016). Drought in a human-modified world: Reframing drought definitions, understanding, and analysis approaches. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20(9), 3631-3650. DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-3631-2016

Van Loon Anne F., Tom Gleeson, Julian Clark, Albert I. J. M. Van Dijk, Kerstin Stahl, Jamie Hannaford, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Adriaan J. Teuling, Lena M. Tallaksen, Remko Uijlenhoet, David M. Hannah, Justin Sheffield, Mark Svoboda, Boud Verbeiren, Thorsten Wagener, Sally Rangecroft, Niko Wanders & Henny A. J. Van Lanen (2016) Drought in the Anthropocene  Nature Geoscience 9, 89–91 (2016) doi:10.1038/ngeo2646

Westerberg, I. K., Wagener, T., Coxon, G., McMillan, H. K., Castellarin, A., Montanari, A. and Freer, J. (2016), Uncertainty in hydrological signatures for gauged and ungauged catchments. Water Resources Research, DOI:10.1002/2015WR017635

Whitehead, P.G.,  H. Leckie, K. Rankinen, D. Butterfield, M.N. Futter, G. Bussi, (2016, in press) “An INCA model for pathogens in rivers and catchments: Model structure, sensitivity analysis and application to the River Thames catchment, UK” Science of The Total Environment.  DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.01.128

Whitehead, P.G., Gianbattista Bussi, Michael J. Bowes, Daniel S. Read, Michael G. Hutchins, J. Alex Elliott, Simon J. Dadson, (2015) “Dynamic modelling of multiple phytoplankton groups in rivers with an application to the Thames river system in the UK“ Environmental Modelling & Software Volume 74, pp. 75–91 DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.09.010

Whitehead P, Jin L, Crossman J, Comber S, Johnes P, Daldorph P, Willows R. (2014). Distributed and dynamic modelling of hydrology, phosphorus and ecology in the Hampshire Avon and Blashford Lakes: Evaluating alternative strategies to meet WFD standards. Science of The Total Environment, pp. 157-166. DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.02.007

Whitehead P.G., Gianbattista Bussi, Michael Bowes, Daniel Read, Simon Dadson, Alex Elliot (2014) Dynamic modelling of five phytoplankton species in river systems: Model equations, sensitivity analysis and Thames Reach Application, Science of the Total Environment, 74.75-91, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.09.010.

Whitehead P.G., (2016) Water Quality Modelling, Wiley Statistics John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. DOI:10.1002/9781118445112.stat07793.pub2

Whitehead, P.G, Crossman, J. et al. (2013) A cost-effectiveness analysis of water security and water quality: impacts of climate and land-use change on the River Thames system. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 371(2002), 20120413

Williams, R., Neal, C., Jarvie, H., Johnson, A., Whitehead, P., Bowes, M. and Jenkins, A. (2015) Water quality. Chap. 8 in, Rodda, J.C. and Robinson, M. (eds.) Progress in Modern Hydrology: Past, Present and Future. Wiley-Blackwell. pp. 240-266. ISBN: 978-1-119-07427-4.


The River Kennet ECG (2017) “Active Water Resilience: Incorporating local knowledge in water management of the River Kennet catchment”.  Report of the 2015-16 River Kennet Environmental Competency Group. Published by ECI, ISBN: 978-1-874370-66-6

Grecksch, K. (2017) Resilient drought and water scarcity management in England and Wales in 2065. Scenario Workshop Documentation. Oxford: Centre for Socio-Legal Studies.