Experts from the About Drought project have given updates on the recent changeable weather we’ve been seeing in the UK and further afield.
The team at the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH) released a blog post which focused on the hydrological transformation following the wettest February on record, which soon turned into one of the driest springs on record. Low soil moisture and river flows at the end of May have resulted in impacts on agriculture and the environment, and heightened concerns over water resources over the longer term.
“There is now an increasing risk of reduced crop yields and potential water use restrictions.”
Katie Muchan, Hydrologist at UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Adding to the debate, Professor Len Shaffrey at the University of Reading contributed to a blog post exploring the reasons as to why we are seeing such changeable weather.
The article explores whether the persistent high-pressure “blocking” weather systems which bring clear, dry conditions for many days or weeks, are becoming more frequent. These systems are particularly synonymous with heatwaves and drought in summer and bitterly cold conditions in winter.
Len explains that changes in the Arctic, “might influence the frequency of blocking events”:
“The theories suggest that as the Arctic warms, changes in the strength and position of the northern hemisphere jet stream will allow blocking events to become more frequent.”
“Water scarcity is becoming an increasingly important issue in terms of overall management of water – in flood as well as drought. Likewise, the farming community is increasingly vulnerable to water scarcity both in terms of physical access and from regulation, for instance around abstraction.”
Paul Hammett, National Water Resources Specialist, National Farmers’ Union
joined the MaRIUS project’s steering group having been appointed as the first National Farmers’ Union (NFU) National Water Resources Specialist in 2012, the year in
which the UK faced its most serious water shortage since the 1976 drought.
“Farmers are at the sharp end of regulation control during low river flows, and
throughout the time of the UK Drought and Water Scarcity Research Programme
we’ve had a series of dry summers which has made the need for better data very
Farming community is increasingly
scarcity is becoming an increasingly important issue in terms of overall
management of water – in flood as well as drought. Likewise, the farming
community is increasingly vulnerable to water scarcity both in terms of
physical access and from regulation, for instance around abstraction.”
The value of
making improved and widely available access to at-a-glance data such as the UK Water Resources Portal which shows flows in more than 300
UK rivers is summed up by the dilemma faced by a Bedfordshire farmer shortly
before Paul gave this interview. Having just planted a field of winter cabbage
the NFU member out of the blue received a letter from the Environment Agency
ordering him to stop irrigating because flow in the River Ouse had fallen below
a particular level. The following week’s weather was dry and all the plants
explains: “Not only did that farmer lose that crop he is now concerned that his
buyer will mark him down as vulnerable to drought and will take the contract
elsewhere, the shock was that the river levels were so low so late in the
“The way he
can be helped in the future will be by having more information on what the flow
is like in his river and what might happen at an earlier stage – just knowing
that a week in advance could have avoided this situation.
like to see more value added to the research programme to give users that extra
granularity in information. If they know something is going to happen, even
just one week’s warning will be helpful.
Local data on water availability
challenge for us all is that water availability is so localised – but it is
also a great opportunity for people to understand that the power of some of
About Drought’s research outputs is such that it can go down to a reasonably
local level and that’s exactly where we need to get.”
Like many of
About Drought’s stakeholders, the challenge for the NFU has been in both
staying abreast of the broad range of activities, events and outputs, picking
out what is relevant to their sector and having the resource to match the
scientific and academic outputs.
mission to co-develop data into usable and accessible data visualisations and
products through feedback and workshops has been highly valued by our sector
partners but they nevertheless say that even more could be done and that they
are loathed to lose the effective community and connections that have been
“Pre-programme, the NFU had existing good contacts with Cranfield University
and the benefit of About Drought has been a widening of that sort of access, it
has been really useful to have an improved relationship with the likes of the Centre
for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH).
benefits to being involved have been making sure that tools are being developed
to help farmers manage the risk of water scarcity and I am really interested in
what ENDOWS will do next to support the farming community in the application of
DRY captured the impacts on farmers
“Also the DRY project has enabled us to capture more of the impacts
of drought on farmers which are sometimes under-represented because not a lot
of them are statistical.
needs to take full advantage of the opportunities presented to us but farmers
are basically self-employed businesses or SMEs (small to medium enterprises)
and as such struggle to justify taking a day away from work to join events –
it’s an issue across the board in everything we do. So we were really pleased
when DRY adapted to their circumstances and set up an early evening
teleconference that was joined by 15 farmers from across the country.”
innovative, interdisciplinary and regional approach empowered farmers and rural
communities to tell their stories which have been recorded as conversations,
podcasts, songs and videos and are available through the DRY
Utility online searchable
database. Father and daughter Cambridgeshire dairy farmers David and Fran
Herdman featured in one of a series of drought myth-busting videos produced by the University of the
West of England talking about how their business is affected by drought.
“It is a really good example of the benefit of the programme to the
The environment work stream has developed five ecosystem-based report cards to communicate the effects of drought in an accessible way. The report cards are a synthesis of existing knowledge and new research within the programme. The ecosystems are:
The report cards are capturing the latest, cutting edge data from the programme, so while we are providing access to them in their latest form, the review process is still ongoing. If you wish to provide any comments to the team behind these, please email email@example.com.
Harper Adams University has undertaken an extensive review of the impact of drought on crops grown in the UK and their response to different climate futures. This also includes a consolidation of insights for protected and horticultural crops. This report is available in draft and more focussed crop factsheets are in production.
Irrigation is an essential component of crop production to
meet retailer demands for premium quality when rainfall is insufficient. Under
drought conditions, irrigation can be constrained by water resources
availability, with consequent impacts on yield, quality and revenue. Whilst
most agriculture in Europe is rainfed, greater dependence on supplemental irrigation
could become more important in humid environments due to a changing climate
with greater rainfall uncertainty and higher frequency of droughts.
This interactive StoryMap explores the total financial benefit of outdoor irrigated production in England and Wales assuming no constraints in resource availability and optimal irrigation practices. The analysis suggests that the total net benefits of irrigation in a dry year are around £665 million. Map outputs highlight significant regional differences in water productivity reflecting the composition of land use and the importance of crop mix in determining economic value. A sensitivity analysis to changes in agroclimate, market conditions (crop prices) and water supply (costs) illustrates how the benefits might change under contrasting scenario. The study highlights the importance of supplemental irrigation, even in a humid climate, and the risks that future droughts and/or constraints in water resource availability might have on agricultural systems, livelihoods and the rural economy.The StoryMap is based on a paper, “Modelling and mapping the economic value of supplemental irrigation in a humid climate“.
As part of the Historic Droughts project, researchers at Cranfield University developed an inventory of qualitative drought data related to UK agriculture based on an extensive review from two weekly farming magazines in the UK, Farmer’s Weekly and Farmers Guardian for the period 1975-2018. The resultant inventory contains over 2500 records with information on the start and end dates of the event and their location to characterise the temporal and spatial extents of the cited event, together with the text describing the driver, impact or response in relation to that event. The inventory is available to download as a csv file from the UK Data Service.
This dataset is also currently being translated in to a drought impacts explorer, which allows the user to view these records spatially and to search and save according to various criteria. If you would like to be involved in beta testing of the explorer please contact firstname.lastname@example.org. An early draft of the explorer is available online.
Recent droughts have highlighted the pressures on water allocations and the reliability of abstractions for irrigation. Farm business models need to align cropping programmes to water availability – how resilient is yours to future water shocks?
D-Risk is an intuitive and free online webtool to help farming enterprises rapidly understand their business and drought abstraction risks and thereby support robust decisions regarding future investment in irrigation infrastructure, including equipment and storage reservoirs. D-Risk uses readily accessible data on your local soils, agroclimate, crop areas, irrigation plans, licences and reservoirs to assess the risk of having: